Believing the polls in advance of the US presidential election; the national vote versus the electoral college; what to think about early vote tallies; addressing and deterring disinformation campaigns; and Marcus makes a prediction even though he doesn’t have a great theory
Cheap Talk
Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.
Freedom From the Burden of Explanation
The role of prediction in IR; forecasting without a solid theory; should we believe FiveThirtyEight’s election predictions; predictions that turn into self-negating prophecies; and Marcus complains that Netflix keeps recommending the Great British Baking Show
That's Just Good Business
Whether more nuclear weapons are better; the risk of accidental nuclear use; the role of US nuclear weapons in spurring more proliferation; the reality of a world of nuclear haves and have-nots; and Marcus discovers hypocrisy exists in international politics
There Were Bales of Hay and It Was a Nice Day Out
Taking diplomacy seriously; the Cold War ends with a fizzle; summit diplomacy; Jimmy Carter saves the day; and Marcus recommends an excellent article in International Studies Quarterly
Further reading:
We Learned Not a Whole Lot
Continuity of government; interpreting foreign policy signals in a crisis; decision-making in the loss domain; benefiting from chaos; and Marcus worries about the lingering effects of COVID
Our Expectations Are Too High
Whether international security institutions matter; power politics; using institutions to avoid taking action; constraining versus screening; and Marcus feels bad for institutions sometimes
Outside the Bounds of Reasonable Behavior
The puzzle of nuclear non-use; strategic calculations versus the nuclear taboo; and Marcus uses the word deontological in a sentence
Their Own Weird Physics Language
Rationalism versus political psychology; whether the bargaining model is useful; the role of individuals in IR; and Marcus has a couple more things to say
Not That Anyone Asked
The COVID-19 pandemic; institutions; China; signposts to a post-pandemic future; and Marcus predicts a new world order
