The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus would prefer that countries refrain from using nuclear weapons
Read MoreCheap Talk
Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.
Is Nothing Sacred?
Allegations of cheating in chess; how to go about cheating in chess (but you shouldn’t do it); a questionable analogy to face-to-face diplomacy; how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects international chess; looking into Putin’s soul; and Marcus shares his chess journey
Read MoreBoth Very Clear and Also Extremely Ambiguous
Escalation management; sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline; signals of Russian resolve; what the end of the war in Ukraine looks like; backing Putin into a corner; US strategic ambiguity toward Russia and China; Iran protests; and Marcus confesses he is not a military strategy guy
Read MoreVictim-Blaming Theory of International Relations
The long-awaited season premiere of Cheap Talk: The origins of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; did Putin make a mistake; would Ukrainian nuclear weapons have prevented a war; who is deterring whom; and Marcus comes up with a final exam question
Read MorePutin's Paranoia
A Cheap Talk emergency podcast: Russia invades Ukraine and Marcus swears off predictions for a while
This Weird Corner of History
The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work
Those Are Not Their Actual Faces
Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey
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Further reading:
J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2018. “Herb-Roasted Turkey With Stuffing.” Serious Eats. (On how to safely cook stuffing in the turkey.)
J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2021. “The Importance of Resting Meat.” Serious Eats. (“For a 12 to 15 pound turkey roasted at high temperatures, a rest of at least 20 to 30 minutes before carving is recommended.”)
Exploiters of the Earth
The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear deal; and Marcus comes reasonably close to pronouncing Greta Thunberg’s name correctly
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Pronunciation guide:
On the Cuyahoga river, see “Letters: Cuyahoga River.” 2009. All Things Considered. National Public Radio.
On Greta Thunberg, see “Greta Thunberg Wins Alternative Nobel.” 2019. Bloomberg QuickTake.
There’s Quite a Bit of Hand-Waving Going On
Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy
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Further reading:
The Elites With Too Much Time On Their Hands
The US commitment to defend Taiwan; signaling resolve while maintaining strategic ambiguity; things are dangerous out there; the effect of US public opinion on US foreign policy; a hint for those writing policy memos for class; the external validity of survey experiments in political science; COVID vaccine diplomacy and international influence; and Marcus claims he’s more of a craps player than a blackjack player
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These Independent Fiefdoms
The militarization of US foreign policy; getting diplomats and intelligence officers out of the embassy; the domestic politics of foreign policy funding; showing results from diplomacy; soft power approaches; and Marcus thinks the answer is more diplomacy
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That Seems Like Kind of a Stupid Thing To Complain About
The gap between academia and policy; where policy beliefs come from; how we would know if there were a gap; policymakers are busy people; less methodological sophistication is not the answer; science communication can bridge the gap; and Marcus mentions offhandedly that he frequently gets invited to the State Department
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The Experiment That We're Running in This Crazy World of Ours
Pure theorizing versus applied research; positivist and non-positivist approaches in international relations; international relations is what the field says it is; the relevance of the international relations paradigms; a defense of methodological pluralism; and Marcus reads a quote from Kenneth Waltz several times
Further reading:
The Real Victims Are the Gala-Goers
Judging the US-Russia summit; the risks of failed summit diplomacy; AUKUS; countering China versus nonproliferation policy; nuclear submarines; the role of precedent and norms in international relations; and Marcus makes a note in his Google calendar
Further reading:
Maybe Quibbles To Be Had There
Cheap Talk makes its triumphant return for season 2: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan; reputations for resolve in international relations; foreign policy as a partisan issue; the legacy of 9/11; and Marcus didn’t know what to do, so he went to class
Plucked From Obscurity
The Cheap Talk season finale: Redeeming the polls and Nate Silver; embracing international institutions and alliances; a chance to get back into a deal with Iran; North Korea is still a mess; and Marcus thinks face-to-face diplomacy is the answer
Facebook Is a Criminal Enterprise
Believing the polls in advance of the US presidential election; the national vote versus the electoral college; what to think about early vote tallies; addressing and deterring disinformation campaigns; and Marcus makes a prediction even though he doesn’t have a great theory
Freedom From the Burden of Explanation
The role of prediction in IR; forecasting without a solid theory; should we believe FiveThirtyEight’s election predictions; predictions that turn into self-negating prophecies; and Marcus complains that Netflix keeps recommending the Great British Baking Show
That's Just Good Business
Whether more nuclear weapons are better; the risk of accidental nuclear use; the role of US nuclear weapons in spurring more proliferation; the reality of a world of nuclear haves and have-nots; and Marcus discovers hypocrisy exists in international politics
There Were Bales of Hay and It Was a Nice Day Out
Taking diplomacy seriously; the Cold War ends with a fizzle; summit diplomacy; Jimmy Carter saves the day; and Marcus recommends an excellent article in International Studies Quarterly
Further reading:
